Saturday, July 24, 2010

IBM reorganizes; SUN goes out of business, why am I not surprised?

By Marty Knuckles

IBM reorganizes; SUN goes out of business, why am I not surprised?
Have we, as an industry, hit the saturation points predicted in Moore’s law and Kurzweil’s observation? Or are these events a reflection of our current global economic problems? If I were to put a bet on it, I’d put my money on the saturation side. There simply isn’t enough money in hardware anymore and given the current hardware feeds and speeds, I doubt that anyone sees any significant difference between hardware suppliers; hence, the pressure on companies such as IBM and Oracle to find other ways to feed the profitability beast. Based on things I’ve said in previous posts and these current events, I would double down my bet on the hardware saturation issue as the real root of marketing ideas and business strategies such as cloud computing, churning the installed hardware base, and having hardware sales folded into software sales. Without adding “a sale is really a software consulting gig” into their business model how will IBM meet the 2015 profitability goals they discussed with investors? Ditto for Oracle.
I’m interested in hearing your opinion.

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